Showing posts with label barrel price. Show all posts
Showing posts with label barrel price. Show all posts

April 29, 2011

Oil prices shape the present and the future of the economy

Modern economies are oil-junkies, and they will still be for a long time. Every movement in the price of oil, no matter how small, reaches the furthermost endpoint of the economy. Without hesitation I can say that oil price is the key factor shaping (and limiting) the behavior of our day-to-day economy. An even more important factor than interest rates or currency exchange rates, which are predominant in the long term.


Actual oil prices are the result of a deadly combination of circumstances: political instabilities in oil producer countries, a low exchange rate of the US dollar (still the preferred currency when trading oil), rise on total demand due to developing economies and last but not least speculation. The extended duration of this situation is very worrying for both oil consumers and oil producers. Consumers, meaning developed and developing economies as a whole, have their GDP growths strongly linked to oil prices, as it has the power to increase the cost of production and distribution processes and also personal transport expenses; all of them key drivers for a healthy economy.

On the other side, oil producers fear that high oil prices can harm demand. Even though oil demand has historically been highly inflexible, as energy is a primary need, it also has its breaking point. This breaking point is that where more expensive energy sources (think alternative energies) become affordable when compared with oil.
Oil producers are aware of this breaking point and on the last days we have seen reactions from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, biggest and 7h biggest oil exporters worldwide respectively, saying they do not endorse such insanely high oil prices. They are profiting largely from these high prices, but at the same time they show some much needed common sense by acknowledging high oil prices can brake or break economic growth. They need their clients' economies to grow, to need more and more of their precious oil.

April 6, 2011

Reasons for an oil producer to go nuclear.

This same week I read at Bloomberg's Businessweek that Abu Dhabi, the 7th country in the world by estimated oil reserves, is building a civilian nuclear reactor to go-live on 2017. The article mainly focused on the assertiveness of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) going forward with their plans despite the ongoing events at Fukushima. Nothing exceptional here from my point of view, as there is nothing in common between the Fukushima plant and and what  the UAE is building in Braka together with Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO).  What I am most interested about is the fact that one of the oil-richest countries in the world is going nuclear.
Illustration of the future, 4-reactor nuclear plant.


Internal energy demand is growing fast in Abu Dhabi, but it is still marginal compared with all the oil the UAE is exporting worldwide. We know Abu Dhabi, as every other producer, can have oil for cheap, so its domestic oil consumption would not justify the huge investment a nuclear energy facility demands. We could also consider Abu Dhabi not a front runner in climate preservation, and because of their small population density they do not have to be much worried about their fossil fuel emissions neither. 

So what could be the reasoning behind this ambitious nuclear plan started in 2008. Are their oil reserve estimates too optimistic? Do they prepare for a sooner-than-expected post-oil era? Or are they simply trying to keep their energy independence? Not being suspicious here, just trying to make some sense of such an expensive and (unfortunately) controversial decision.