Showing posts with label bubble. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bubble. Show all posts

June 9, 2011

The problem with subsidies

There has been much talk lately about whether the United States Government should stop subsidizing domestic oil companies like Exxon, Chevron or ConocoPhilips to name a few. Tax breaks to oil companies are an old time practice in the US and no government, either democrat or republican, has dared to eliminate them. The reason why these tax breaks still exist is not clear for me, as oil has always been a profitable industry, even through energy crisis like the ones in the 70's or the Gulf war crisis in 1990. However, recent talks about the need to eliminate those tax breaks and focus the money on alternate energy have spiked some heated debates across the US, mainly due to the already high prices of gas and the multi-billion benefits of oil companies worldwide. This has put the problem with subsidies back in the spotlight. 

People (and corporations) get used to subsidies really fast and once they are fully integrated in daily life they are just perceived as an acquired privilege, rather than what they really should be: a temporary boost to an ailing or complicated situation/sector. This is a big problem for two main reasons. The first one is that, after their initial effect on containing or lowering prices, the subsidized good or service generally goes up as if nothing had happened, thus rendering the subsidy useless. The second reason is, when government retires said subsidy, prices are expected to go up even more, so people will complain about it. And that people will complain is not an expectation but a true fact.

But despite energy subsidies having a distorting effect on the economy, the clearest and biggest examples of the danger of subsidies I can think of are the homeownership subsidies that caused the Irish and the Spanish housing bubbles. Yes, over-optimistic lending by numerous banks makes them guilty by association,  but they are businesses and they responded to the needs of a market. A market governments artificially created. Governments were the true enablers of said bubbles. I will never understand what (if any) is the noble idea behind subsidizing homeownership through mortgages. If said noble idea was giving access to a decent house to low-income citizens renting subsidies would have worked similarly well, yet they did not appear anywhere. Maybe the reason was that buying a house provides far more tax revenue for a government than renting one does... Whatever the reason was, for me homeownership is not a security but a limiting factor, as discussed in this article.

The only thing these housing subsidies have achieved in both of the examples given is a construction boom together with a price spike, and a quite heavy one. In a normal, not mortgage-subsidized market, even after assuming the natural demand increase caused by higher demographics in the period, the situation would have been very different. A housing and construction boom would have led to lower or stable house prices, never to sky-rocketing ones! Sky-rocketing prices that ended busting the bubble that we can easily trace to the drowning of Ireland and Spain economies in the past two years.

The supply and demand law is at the base of economic liberalism for a reason. It is a force powerful enough to shape any given economic sector with common sense. The market is wise enough to decide on the evolution of a sector. Subsidies should only be used in exceptional cases, or to protect distressed citizens from being excluded from the system (think health for example) but never on a generalized scale or on a long-term basis.

May 20, 2011

LinkedIn IPO craziness. A new giant? Or the start of a 2.0 bubble?

Yesterday's (19th of May) session at Wall Street was a much anticipated one. It was the day LinkedIn, dubbed the 'professional social network' went public. Initially valued at 43.5$ per title, which would have roughly added to a $4.1 billion valuation, it was already a high enough price for some. But the demand for the stock was overwhelming and it astonishingly skyrocketed during its first session, reaching a peak of +160% during the day, to finally end the session at almost +110%. That left LinkedIn valued at 94.25$ per share (NYSE:LNKD), or if you prefer it, a total market cap of $8.91 billion!

The behavior of the LinkedIn stock on its first session ever shows a renewed appetite for tech companies, which is good for the market, but honestly I find it to be a quite unrealistic performance. It says more about traders looking for some lonesome bulls in the middle of the last week's reigning uncertainty, than about the real short-term prospection of the company. But do not let the stock price fool you into thinking LinkedIn is a one-day flower, its future looks bright, with a first quarter 2011 revenue of $94 million, more than doubling the same period of 2010 ($44.7 million), and having surpassed the 100 million registered users milestone. 

LinkedIn has shown that social networks can truly be monetized, something Facebook and Twitter have been unable to do, and the main reason why both of them are not still publicly traded. Although you can count on them going public in a not-so-far away future... 

LinkedIn (LNKD) graph from 1st day on NYSE. Credit: Google Finance


They say knowledge is power, and there is no doubt that social networks have an enormous wealth in the form of personal information and other data, but there is no direct formula to turn this knowledge into money. LinkedIn, thanks to its professional incline, seems to have found the magic formula and just so you know it is the following: 33% revenue comes from advertising, 21% comes from selling premium subscriptions and the rest comes from services to companies and headhunters.

My doubts do not come from LinkedIn's future, but from the reaction of the market to its IPO and the precedent it creates given the late eagerness to invest in internet firms like Twitter, Groupon, Baidu, Yandex, Facebook... regardless of them being viable companies economically or not.

December 30, 2010

Deflating the rare-earth bubble in time

By now everybody, even those without interest in economics at all, will have heard of the commodities rally of the last months. Lack of confidence in the stock markets, in the health of bank's finances, the fear of a worldwide double-dip recession, currency wars, political near-conflicts around the globe... (more on these subjects on future posts) all have contributed to the price rise of most of the physical commodities, specially metals.
Traditionally the classic commodities have been precious metals like gold, silver, platinum and to a lesser extent, palladium. Not only they have an inherent value because of their relative scarcity, but they are also widely used in industry so they serve their wealth reserve purpose very well. Lately we have seen how "purely industrial" metals like copper, aluminum, titanium and molybdenum have joined the classics on this rally with quite interesting growths too. The good part is that all of the commodities named above are obtained from mines spread around the world, which helps to maintain a kind of equilibrium in their valuation. 

Rare-earth elements

This is not the case for rare-earth elements (see Wikipedia), as China is responsible for the 97% of today's rare-earth production. It does not take much to see why this is a problem when these elements are critical in industries like fiber-optics, wind turbines, home electronics (your iphone is included), hybrid cars, magnets in general... even night-vision goggles use them!

Source: wikipedia