When rescue packages are not enough, a Greek tragedy in the making.

The astonishingly beautiful deep blue waters of the Aegean sea must be starting to boil as of now, with the economic situation in Greece heating up even further. Debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 143%, Credit Default Swaps are at 1371 basis points, S&P downgraded (once more) Greek debt to B rating from BB-, taking it only two steps about the C rating, which effectively erases one from financing and flags you as someone waiting to default. To make matters worse, often-violent demonstrations are stopping the country's already ailing economy day after day. I truly can understand the frustration the situation causes, but halting economic activity is clearly the worst thing to do in the actual situation...

Another rescue package, combined from both the European Union and the IMF (with or without Dominique Strauss-Kahn), seems to be in the way but its effectiveness is already in doubt. A recent poll shows almost everybody thinks this would be artificial life support for Greek debt. Sooner or later a default or a painful debt restructuring process seems to be coming. Not being a debt restructuring expert, just based in common sense I can only say: make it sooner rather than later.

Extending this situation is bad for everybody, it is bad for Greece's future, bad for Portugal and Ireland debt prices and bad for the whole euro area's stability. Stop being stuck in the actual situation, a situation that slowly built the hole where you are now. Just change everything! 

First thing, go out and make the people understand why spending cuts and privatizations are basic, unavoidable and necessary to have a future. You can not afford to have your people burning policemen, destroying everything that comes close and shutting down air transport... Tourism is a keystone in Greece's actual economy, so flying stones and burnt buses are not the best of promotions for the country. In fact any company thinking of investing in Greece as of now would be held back but the situation on the streets.

Losing ballast for a faster recovery: Slashing the government

Almost every developed country worldwide is nowadays fully immersed on its own fight for economic recovery. But this fight is made tougher by high unemployment rates, sovereign solvency doubts, inflation and financial speculation. The resultant situation is hard to tackle for governments: they need their economies to grow but they must ensure they are solvent and responsible, thus being a stable soil for said recovery to grow on. 

I am not going to discuss the measures for economic growth here, but the ones used to keep the state under control. These measures to try to lower government spending range from budget cuts, the end of some subsidies, establishment of debt ceilings, social services restrictions... to issuing (more) debt to be able to keep public spending at actual levels. Some of these moves are smart, some of them are insane, specially the debt issuing one... But all of them are late, very late.

2011 data from The Heritage Foundation , The Wall Street Journal via Wikipedia 

 

In the last decades we have grown accustomed to bigger and bigger states, with a never-ending growth in civil servants, entities, organizations, committees... Just have a look at the table above on the column for Government expenditure in percentage of GDP and you will see some unbearably high numbers (I will come back to analyze this table in a future post). This growth in size and cost was associated with the growing complexity of running a state in modern times, the never-ending appearance of new social measures and so on. Everybody let the parasite grow deep inside us, and when the ride was smooth nobody seemed to care about the extra weight that was being placed on the shoulders of the economy. But what now that we are on one of the bumpiest sections of this one-way road that is history? No matter how much horsepower your car has, if you start putting rocks in the trunk its performance will fall to the ground.

Stopping the government growth and its crazy spending is not enough, we must shrink its size and cost to reasonable levels. But how do you shrink a government without stopping its functions?