May 4, 2011

Canada goes the cost reduction way

Canada had its general elections last Monday and while the winner, the actual Prime Minister Stephen Harper from the Conservative Party, was totally expected; the result boosted him to a majority government. With their hands untied from a minority government against the New Democratic Party, Mr Harper's Conservatives are now free to apply the keystone point in their electoral program, taxes and government spending reductions.
Stephen Harper celebrating victory
I have expressed my concerns on excessive government spending worldwide on previous posts, Canada was not an exception there, with 39.7% of GDP going to government expenses every year... Canadians have expressed their concerns with the matter too, strongly supporting the only party that promised to reduce said spending. With this move, Canada joins the trend of slashing government spending, a trend that started in Europe to fight troubled economies like Greece's, but that has gone mainstream since then on developed economies. Finally everybody begins to notice the weight of the state is unbearable as of now, recession has made this blatantly visible.

I will not analyze in detail the politics behind Mr Harper's party, but from a macroeconomic point of view Canada is in a far better position to boost recovery than for example European countries. Canada is one of the few net energy exporters (together with Norway) among developed countries and is also the world's second biggest uranium producer with 20.7% of production. Not only they are exporting energy abroad (which at actual prices is quite a good business) but they are energetically independent as they control the supply for their main energy source, nuclear energy.

This independence means their recovery plans will not be heavily altered by raising energy prices, or tensions in the Middle East for that matter... If the Conservative's deficit reduction plan works as planned and corporate tax reductions really help boost employment I would say it is quite possible for them to be able to beat IMF's expected GDP growth of 2.8% for 2011. I am confident on every economy that successfully covers its energy needs and Canada has been doing it for a long time.
Energetic independence partly shields Canada from the never-ending commodities rally and thus gives it the most desirable ground for economic recovery and growth: a ground where it can focus on its own economic efficiency.

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